MyDD :: Obama's so called EC weakness

Obama's so called EC weakness

by Mandoliniment, Mon May 12, 2008 at 03:06:50 PM EST

So the meme is that Obama can't win the swing states, and it's all about the EV's. Well, the second part is true. But let's take a look at states in play, shall we?

I'll take my numbers directly from www.electoral-vote.com.

They show Obama down 237 - 290 (with Indiana's 11 EVs tied).

But:

Florida
Ohio
Michigan
and New Mexico

In each of these states, totaling 69 EV's, Obama is polling down by one. One point. Add Indiana and that's 80 Electoral votes that are essentially tied.

Nebraska, South Carolina, and Wisconsin (My state - we'll deliver for either candidate) are all within 4, and total another 23 EVs within 5.

His weaknesses currently polling blue? PA and CO; a total of 30 EV.

Clinton has similar weaknesses in WA, IA, HI, and CT for 29 votes at risk, but only shows 38 red state votes within five points; Obama has twice that polling within one point.

This isn't meant to downplay Clinton's chances; she'd do just fine in the general against McCain. But to pretend the swing-state map somehow isn't friendly to Obama is frankly silly.

edited to add HI

Tags: Obama, electability (all tags)

Permalink :: 35 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: Obama's so called EC weakness (2.00 / 1)

Exatcly. I take my bearings from the wonderful analysis that Poblano does at www.fivethirtyeight.com

Check it out. It's the best EV analysis there is.

Obama/Warner 2008

by MissVA on Mon May 12, 2008 at 03:13:10 PM EST

Re: Obama's so called EC weakness (none / 0)

Based on Poblano's track record lately I'm more likely to believe his projections at the moment.

Also Progressive Illinois has as an interesting article on his model.

http://progressillinois.com/2008/05/11/f eatures/obama-over-the-top

Faced with the choice between changing one's mind and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof.

by jsfox on Mon May 12, 2008 at 03:24:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's so called EC weakness (none / 0)

Apart from the graphs and charts along the right side, where is the EV analysis? I can't find it...

Unseen, in the background, Fate was quietly slipping the lead into the boxing glove.

by fogiv on Mon May 12, 2008 at 08:22:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's so called EC weakness (2.00 / 1)

Also, the recent Rasmussen poll of Virginia had Obama trailing McCain by only 3. VA is probably a long shot, but huge turnout among AAs and in NoVA could put Obama over the top. One thing that I think polls fail to capture is the enthusiasm gap between dems and republicans this year, and in some states that could make a difference. I think this is especially so in places with significant AA populations like Virginia and Michigan.

As a South Carolinian, I find it hard to believe that Obama could win the state. However, we had an awesome organization here leading up to the primary, and it's conceivable that our huge AA population (30%) could turn out in record numbers and make it competitive. But, realistically, it's not a likely outcome.

by DPW on Mon May 12, 2008 at 03:38:05 PM EST

Re: Obama's so called EC weakness (none / 0)

I agree the SC poll is a bit of an outlier; but also remember that Obama should get a nice bounce after the convention. I would guess that both Dems are polling a little bit low right now, on average.

His long term average in IN against McCain is better than Clinton's, too.

The fact is that there's a lot of the country that's polling red that's very much in play for him.

John McCain

by Mandoliniment on Mon May 12, 2008 at 03:43:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's so called EC weakness (none / 0)

I would also add that Obama has led in 4 of the last 5 polls of New Mexico, so I'm not sure why electoral-vote.com has Obama losing the state (I suppose they rely on the one poll from SUSA showing McCain ahead).

Similarly, Obama has led is most polls of Wisconsin except for the most recent one. I'm pretty confident that he grabs that state in the general.

by DPW on Mon May 12, 2008 at 03:44:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's so called EC weakness (none / 0)

He has a pretty strict algorithm of just using the most recent polling, which makes his map a bit more volatile than some others; it is however the most widely referenced EV map site.

Election Projection, which is rabidly Republican, shows Obama winning the popular vote by 4 points and winning the EC.

I'm not saying it's a gimmie, or that he can't lose, simply that he's pretty strong as a candidate when you look at actual polling data.

John McCain

by Mandoliniment on Mon May 12, 2008 at 03:55:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's so called EC weakness (none / 0)

Another point you can add to this analysis is that even if he (or hell, Clinton) doesn't have much of a realistic chance of winning places like Virginia or South Carolina, it's still forcing McCain to play defense, which will divert his resources.

That's the mentality of the 50 state strategy. It pains me to see some people acting like states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida are absolutely positively 100% must-win states, and focus in on only them. That's basically the antithesis to the 50 state strategy.

by Jaffee on Mon May 12, 2008 at 06:34:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's so called EC weakness (none / 0)

He is even losing michigan and wiscosin now. mccain is going to beat him BADLY.

by darlene25 on Mon May 12, 2008 at 03:44:07 PM EST

Re: Obama's so called EC weakness (none / 0)

Let's see. McCain has had lovely press for the last 3 months - Obama has had awful press. Do you really trust the polls from right now?

There will be a post-primary bump.

by Falsehood on Mon May 12, 2008 at 03:46:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's so called EC weakness (1.00 / 1)

Obama has 2 connections to people who have tried to bomb the USA and 1 to Hamas which were very happy when the USA was bombed but who along with Hezbola have not threatened to bomb the USA.

1) Saddam/Auchi/Rezko/Obama's house

2) Ayers who helped start Obama's career

3) The Palestinian connection that caused Obama aid to drop out due to Hamas connections.

Obama has had CRAZY CRAZY CRAZY good press.

by DTaylor on Mon May 12, 2008 at 06:23:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's so called EC weakness (none / 0)

Which 2 of these half-ass connections tried to bomb the US exactly?

You do realize Saddam had nothing to do with 9/11... or will you be wanting to rehash that as well?

by Tatan on Mon May 12, 2008 at 07:41:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's so called EC weakness (none / 0)

Saddam was tied to the first world trade center attempt.

by DTaylor on Tue May 13, 2008 at 04:24:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Are you sure? (none / 0)

I had never heard that.

Saddam was evil, but he has always been more assocated with secularism.. for example, women were not required to wear scarves, all-over bag clothing (forget its name) etc. under Saddam.

The extremist Muslims would NEVER allow that. Women in our ally Saudi Arabia are not allowed out without them.

On the other hand,
Saddam killed OVER A MILLION of his own people.

Universal healthcare IS a core Democratic value
Without a REAL committment to it, we WON'T win in November.

by architek on Tue May 13, 2008 at 09:14:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]

That's a debunked talking point (none / 0)

From a right wing conspiracy book written by Laurie Mylroie:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laurie_Mylr oie

It's been totally debunked for years. But was still pushed by Doug Feith and the DIA in the run up to the war.

This is a total republican plant.

by Tatan on Tue May 13, 2008 at 09:48:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]

You're obviously (none / 0)

a Republican troll.

No one with even a cursory understanding of what happened at the WTC, would believe that Laurie Mylroie BS.

You're coming on a Democratic blog to push a debunked neo-con conspiracy theory.

Go back to redstate where you belong.

by Tatan on Tue May 13, 2008 at 09:51:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's so called EC weakness (none / 0)

Look at all the Wisconsin polling, not just the most recent poll--which is arguably an outlier. Obama is pretty strong in Wisconsin.

http://www.pollster.com/08-WI-Pres-GE-Mv O.php

Michigan is closer, but Obama is doing slightly better than Clinton there if you look at an average of all recent polling.

http://www.pollster.com/08-MI-Pres-GE-Mv O.php

by DPW on Mon May 12, 2008 at 03:48:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Obama ain't losing Wisconsin (2.00 / 1)

I'm from there originally, and know the state pretty well. People (Minnesotans) accuse them of being hicks, but they have one of the strongest public college systems in the country, and are the birthplace of the Progressive movement--and I ain't talkin' about saving money on car insurance.

Wisconsin went for Kerry by 1% , and they were lukewarm at best about him. They love Obama.

In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.

by Dracomicron on Mon May 12, 2008 at 04:07:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama ain't losing Wisconsin (2.00 / 1)

I'm there now. And you're right.

John McCain

by Mandoliniment on Mon May 12, 2008 at 04:08:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I'm right over the river. (none / 0)

Here in Minnesota we hope that Pawlenty is McCain's VP pick so we can vote against him. He ain't losing Minnesota, either.

In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.

by Dracomicron on Mon May 12, 2008 at 04:19:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Yeah (none / 0)

That will really drive up the student vote (the undergrads at the U of MN (East Bank) hate T-Paw with a passion).

Student Guy=JoeMentum. No really Student Guy=JoeMentum, after all JoeMentum was an embarrassment so is Student Guy. This sig is FAIL!!

by Student Guy on Mon May 12, 2008 at 05:46:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Request (none / 0)

All diarists and commentators: Please refrain from citing one or two polls to reference the state of a given race. You need an average over many polls to have a good sense of where things might stand. Poblano has this data on his site, as does pollster.com. Citing one poll that happens to support your position (whatever position that might be) makes Fuzzy sad.

John McCain: Extending SCHIP would be an "unfunded liability."

by Fuzzy Dunlop on Mon May 12, 2008 at 04:13:08 PM EST

Re: Request (none / 0)

A fair point. electoral-vote.com is frequently cited, however. And my point, which still stands, I think, is that Obama has significant opportunities to reach 270.

John McCain

by Mandoliniment on Mon May 12, 2008 at 04:19:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Request (none / 0)

Electoralvote.com is indeed frequently cited. I wish people would stop doing this.

But I agree with your larger point. Obama is well positioned for the general and only a crazy person would think that he doesn't have a chance. I think he is a significant favorite over McCain, not quite as large of a favorite as Hillary would have been, but a favorite nonetheless.

John McCain: Extending SCHIP would be an "unfunded liability."

by Fuzzy Dunlop on Mon May 12, 2008 at 04:28:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I only watch Matthews on Sunday morning... (none / 0)

for the Tell Me Something I Don't Know segment but this past Sunday there was a guy from The New Yorker eof the mayor of Detroit.

by handsomegent on Mon May 12, 2008 at 05:09:50 PM EST

oops (none / 0)

who predicted that O would lose Michigan because of the mayor of Detroit.

by handsomegent on Mon May 12, 2008 at 05:10:44 PM EST

Don't forget Pennsylvania (none / 0)

The cling-to-guns comment left huge fallout for Obama here. Pennsylvania will be the biggest battleground in the fall and if Obama loses it, he can't realistically make up the EV's anywhere else.

2004 swing state margins: PA-2%, OH-2%, IA-1%, WI-0.5%, MI-3%, FL-5%, NM-1%; Alienating 50% of the party is a luxury we can't afford.

by BPK80 on Mon May 12, 2008 at 06:07:38 PM EST

Re: Obama's so called EC weakness (none / 0)

I think he'll do just fine. Not that it really matters at this point. Isn't it about time we stop this stupid bickering and just start working together against McCain?

by Rick in Eugene on Mon May 12, 2008 at 06:37:38 PM EST

Re: Obama's so called EC weakness (none / 0)

please, this early out, given the voting history of Nebraska and South Carolina, you're not really thinking they're a shot? McCain will have to be down 20 points for that to be true, if such a deficit holds by the end of October. With the other states, you also got to hope Obama's comments about guns, "typical white" people, Wright, etc. don't come back to haunt him. Remember, states are whiter than they are in Democratic primaries, and whites in swing states usually vote more Republican.

"there is nothing wrong with America that cannot be cured by what is right in America"-William Jefferson Clinton, forty-second President of the United States

by DiamondJay on Mon May 12, 2008 at 06:48:37 PM EST

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